The new home for the Arctic Joule calcs

It’s on this page now,  a WordPress page rather than post, which will be the home for the Arctic Joule calculations system. It also is visible in the menu bar above.

I’ve added some charts, but the spreadsheet data is still there in the background when you click on the link. I’ve also added FAQs at the bottom of that page.  Go there, or click on the chart below, to get the full PDF. Even the thumbnail below is kept current: you can see their progress, expected arrival, and the last update posted even before clicking on it:

Arctic Joule tracking chart

  • And the mods are doing something else very peculiar indeed.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • I did see that, thanks. I was tipped off earlier today by Juergen U. in a comment on another post here.

    Several interesting things about that article jumped out at me. I will make a post about it shortly.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • MJSnyder

    Not sure if you’ve seen this or not: Paul Gleeson has sent a trip report to the Irish Times.ca published Aug. 23 saying, “It is now impossible for us to make our intended final destination of Pond Inlet.” They plan now to stop at Cambridge Bay (ca. 550 kms.) – the halfway point of their trip. They think they should arrive about the end of August.

  • kepler

    Amazing. It lasted for about 3 hours. I thought that it might encourage others to come to your defense. But now we’ll never know.

  • Even your comment asking what happened to me has been destroyed.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • MJSnyder

    Keith – Welcome to a very small, but supposedly divisive club. I too was banned from their site for a comment that was ok for 3 or 4 days until Jai Mitchell posted a hate diatribe. Interestingly someone else picked up my comment and reposted it verbatim, and it still stands. It appears the mods are reacting to the accusation of invective more than they are to the actual content.

  • LexingtonGreen

    Definitely need an Arctic Joule Facebook page. I am shocked that they blocked you Keith. You posted nothing but interesting data regarding the progress..

  • kepler

    You should create your own Facebook page for tracking the Arctic Joule and continue your posts there. Be sure to block Mr. Martin when he shows up!

  • kepler

    Oh no they blocked you. I can’t believe they are that ignorant!

  • kepler

    I think you are handling the situation exactly right, with calm, respectful presentation of the facts coupled with direct challenges to produce evidence that supports his wild claims, and then with a resumption of your posts as before.

    Mr. Martin is one of those people who is driven totally by emotion without a single critical-thinking bone in their body. They go through life yelling and waving their hands at others in order to get their way. I’ve found it very difficult to reason with people like that.

    If I were the rowers I would value highly the information that you are giving them. Knowledge is power, and for the rowers it’s the power to make the right decisions.

  • Martin demanded that I be banned. One of the moderators didn’t quite agree, but she indicated that she would remove any references to my website. And she corresponded with Martin, whereupon he posted a character attack upon me — which remains the top post on the site after several hours (and a private comment by me to the moderator).

    As I said to the moderator, it is disappointing.

    While it is true that I oppose catastrophists who are using the issue of climate change to foist all sorts of silliness on citizens, I certainly wish no harm to this expedition’s crew. I hope they succeed, while cringing somewhat at the use to which that success will be put. And, of course, the numbers don’t look very good at this point.

    For me, it’s the sheer human battle against the elements involved here, and I am quite impressed by their attempt, their guts, and their determination.

    And I have never “viciously mocked” them, nor ever predicted a date more than a year out. Very early on, their slow going and the short distance made the prediction push into December, and even January briefly (I still have all the sheet versions), but they’ve gradually edged that back to being, as of today, expected to arrive one month late. Everyone’s had access to these numbers.

    Martin’s only strategy in his comments seems to be falsehoods and exaggeration. Sad, but all too common.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • And right about that time, I responded.

    I definitely need an owl. And I suppose it’s legit, as I’m a member of a large group that uses one as their official mascot.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • kepler

    i just read Mr. Martin’s diatribe. Unbelievable.

  • kepler

    Regarding your question on Facebook “Is anyone else active on here?”, there are probably many people monitoring your posts. But since the excellent information that you provide is harsh reality to most, they aren’t inclined to comment. They tend to prefer the human interest stories and animal photos (the bear got 65 likes).

    So maybe you should include an arctic animal photo in your posts to serve as a mascot of sorts. Your posts are wise and level-headed, so perhaps the Snowy Owl would be a good choice (I’m only half kidding on this).

    Anyway I hope you aren’t discouraged by the lack of attention you are getting on Facebook. Keep up the good work!

  • It’s a pleasant thought, but I expect that in this case “the answer is blowin’ in the wind.”

    Nevertheless, I see that they are not running too close to the coastline. This will help their numbers — and their chances. They have a mighty effort to put forward to make back lost time.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • kepler

    I think they are paying attention and following your advice. They are on a very smooth track today and moving at a good clip.

  • There were two different reports of that encounter, with entirely different feels to them as to the level of threat perceived. Even as to whether they were upwind or downwind of the bear.

    The crew evidently varies in its degree of excitability — probably a good thing.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • kepler

    They were sure moving quickly after encountering that Grizzly. It looked like they could bearly wait to get to Lady Franklin Point.

    They are probably exploring. If they don’t succeed with their rowing mission, then at least they will be able to produce a fallback documentary that is titled something like “DEW Line Ghost Stations of the Great Northwest”.

  • From their story, it almost seemed that they ran out before they Tarted.

    They did pull in right at the end of the Lady Franklin Airport runway, but there is so little infrastructure at that former DEW line spot (now closed) that it doesn’t seem likely to be stocked with supplies.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • kepler

    Maybe they “popped” in to refill their stash of Pop Tarts. Paul seems to really like them.

  • Odd. It is one of Excel’s “legendary” curiosities, I support. I’ve been able to make it show now, and it will be part of the next post when the fellows move again. They’d almost gotten under 13 days behind — but seem to have lost a day today. I wonder if they are actually visiting “Lady Franklin Airport” such as it is.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • kepler

    Minor bug report: In the KpD plot on page 2 I don’t see a legend item for the lavender “KpD Needed” line.

  • kepler

    Correction: I plugged your site on http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com

  • kepler

    Thanks that makes sense. I thought the GC distances were relative to their nearest point on the GC from Inuvik to Pond Inlet.

    I just plugged your site on realscience.com.

  • Citizen Tom

    There is a certain irony in a cold summer making their voyage more difficult.
    I hope they finish. However, if they are unable to finish, I hope they don’t wait to long to give up. Otherwise, gutsier men may have to risk their lives to come to their rescue.

  • There are two versions because I have hundreds of readers, including many active participants, at the LiveJournal site. They’re just less interested in the Arctic business.

    They’d predicted finishing by September 23rd. But I don’t think this very cold summer would even have permitted that date.

    Caution would have prevented them from even starting. I think that this gutsy crew will go until physically stopped — perhaps another thirty days or so. I’ll call it September 17th.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • Citizen Tom

    Looks like most of your comments have shifted to this website. Why do you maintain two versions?
    One other question. On the adventurers’ website they predict a three-month max window for rowing. Any idea when you think caution should force them to quit.

  • The two great circle distances are from the Arctic Joule back to their starting point and to their destination. The total distance from Inuvik to Pond Inlet is about 2,045 km, so the only way to get that number as the total is to be exactly on the line between them. That hasn’t happened so far, as the GC route is rather north of them for most of the trip. (They’ll cross it on the final stretch a couple of times.)

    So, since they’re south of the ideal air route, they’re on the point of a triangle with the Inuvik-Pond Inlet side forming the base. The two sides connecting to them will be longer than the base as long as the triangle has any altitude (in other words, as long as they’re not on a direct line). Does that make sense?

    I use the GC remaining distance to figure out where they should be with regard to the planned route. There are about 240 plotted route points (contributed by my friend Marmoe), though the later segments are longer than the earlier ones as they have more open water. (Hah! More open last year, at least!) They’re now (Aug 17) near route point 128, and have been for the past day roughly. That allows me to determine how much they’re straying from their planned course by coast-hugging and whatever. Currently they’re running about 15% high (the actual-versus-expected veer ratio), which means the total trip distance gets bumped up by that 15%.

    Since most of the distance is west to east, they’ve covered 33.9% of the “horizontal” longitude distance, but 37.5% of the total track distance based on my estimations.

    Mention to others at the site if you find the sheet useful; I appreciate the referral!

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • kepler

    Thanks again Keith for answering my questions. It’s fun learning about your spreadsheet.

    I have another one. I noticed that the total GC distance (GrCirDist + GCToGo) has been slowing increasing. For the record dated 17-Aug 00:01:04 it’s up to 2,146 Km. What causes that?

  • I’ve been known to conduct political debates in iambic pentameter, and I once hosted a “poetry on demand” service where you supplied a topic and style and I crafted something in response. That was enjoyable.

    Perhaps you’d be amused by this bit of humor from that same trip, written in iambic pentameter and tied to an area you probably bicycled through:

    http://level-head.livejournal.com/175768.html

    (The moniker “Level Head” is just an anagram of DeHavelle.)

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • MJSnyder

    Hi Keith – thanks for your reply!  When I was in Dawson I bought a book of Service’s poems to help pass the time on the long road to Inuvik.  I also had my picture taken (and my bike) on the porch of Service’s house by the actor himself. Loved your using Service’s style to describe your trip – maybe that’ll be a whole new calling for you! Murray

  • You’re right, the veer is going to be slightly underestimated. But there’s a counter-effect: When they “forget” to turn on the pings as they experiment with a difficult run, this also means that their average speed does not benefit from their real track. If we knew every twist and turn they took, we’d have a higher average Km/Day rate — which means that once they point more toward the goal, they’d go faster than we think.

    The two would approximately balance out … or would be “veery close” so to speak.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • kepler

    Yes, thanks for the info. This is a great site.

    I was wondering, since they don’t provide a continuous track, and sometimes forget to turn it on thereby omitting some of the coast hugging, do you think that your veer computations might be slightly lower than what I’ll call the “real veer”? If so do you have a guestimate as to how much time the real veer might add to the predicted arrival time that you advertise?

  • Hard to say. It’s a tough job, what they’re doing, and they’ve got to be keenly aware that (1) they’re running badly behind, and (2) even if they were on schedule, this very cold winter might not have let them finish.

    That is demanding on their morale, in combination with the physical effort needed.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • It was very brief, and had recovered by the time they restarted today.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • They’re rolling again. I’ll update as soon as they’ve stopped — though I can’t monitor it at the moment.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • Thank you. That must have been a hell of a trip! I’ve driven only a portion of that distance by car and motor home, and bicycling over thousands of km of unpaved surfaces with no support had to have been a massive challenge! I am impressed.

    I wrote a little bit about our trip in Robert Service’s style:

    There’s a tale to tell, one that I know well, of a trip four years ago
    We’re Alaska bound, then by car and hound, it’s to Dawson we did go.
    Dawson City’s nice (well, when there’s no ice) and it’s where Bob Service stayed.
    While he’s Scotland born, on a frosty morn, off to Canada he strayed.

    So me and my girl, cross the Top o’ the World, went to Canada also.
    And we’d slip and slide down the mountainside, and across a river’s flow.
    After Skagway’s bus, surely both of us knew some Service poems quite well.
    For the driver told — while the scenery rolled — of the lands where miners dwell.

    And the Yukon tales, and the mournful wails of the wind had lured us on
    So to Dawson C. in the NWT we had come to see the dawn.
    Everywhere we went, store or circus tent, had a Robert Service theme
    And it seems that folks even told their jokes as if living in his dream.

    We saw plays and acts, and we soon lost track of the times we’d seen Cremation
    And we got a book, and some pictures took; he’s inspired that whole nation.
    But the best of all! From the city hall, we would get a small head start
    To where Service slept, and we softly stepped while an actor played his part.

    He was very good! And he clearly could rattle off the poems all day.
    We, transfixed for hours by his craft and powers, got CDs and tapes to play.
    When we came away, later in the day, we had memories most fair:
    Of the Dawson City, and the cabin pretty, and Bob Service — we were there!

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • It’s usually hidden, but I exposed it for a bit to help understanding. It makes the spreadsheet too wide to see easily, though.

    I’ve exposed it again. The logic first spots their closest point to the planned route (using great circle distance remaining), figures out what the expected veer is (i.e., how far they should have gone to get 1km closer to Pond Inlet, usually around 1.6km), and compares this to the crew’s actual experience, which is more like 1.8 or so and is called “actual veer.” This comparison produces a “veer ratio,” which adds to their expected remaining voyage length. So, if they continue coast hugging, they’ve got a longer trip than if they’d have been able to follow the planned route.

    The formula doesn’t help much, as it’s built up over several cells. Actual veer is easy enough:

    =IF(MLF_curLon=Empty,Empty,MLF_c_Track/MLF_c_GCdist)

    Expected veer is more complex:
    =IF(MLF_curLon=Empty,Empty,INDEX(Rt_c_Veer,IF(MLF_curLon=Empty,Empty,MATCH(MLF_c_ToGo,Rt_c_Remain,MatchGT))))

    Veer ratio is simply actual over expected. The “empty” business in front is just to blank the cells if no data is entered yet.

    The “__c__” in the names refers to a column. The MLF_ table is the one you see, the RT_ table is the ideal route.

    Does that help enough?

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • Hah. I’ve got all their pings recorded for the past few weeks. I’ll see if I can determine when that started. It may be that they just did a big run uploading the video, and it will recover.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • LexingtonGreen

    Well, it looks like the wind should be pushing them down whatever the straight is called. Coming from the NW. http://weather.gc.ca/marine/weatherConditions-currentConditions_e.html?mapID=05&siteID=03200&stationID=WXR

  • MJSnyder

    I hope this isn’t a problem, but I just noticed for the first time on this trip their battery condition is listed as “LOW”.

  • MJSnyder

    Hi Keith: I’ve been following their trip since they left Vancouver – usually check up 2X a day. Thanks for setting up the data sheets; I’ve thoroughly enjoyed perusing them. I too disagree with their motivation, but I admire their courage and determination and certainly don’t wish them any harm. I’ve been to Tuk, but it was as a termination point after a 16,000 km. bicycle trip criss crossing the US and Canada.
    Thanks again – Murray

  • kepler

    You removed veer from the spreadsheet? Also what is the cell formula for veer? Just curious.

  • LexingtonGreen

    I wonder what they are doing. It seems like the wind is low presently and coming from the NNW it seems like it would be pushing them if they got a little further. Plotting their exit?

  • I think that’s fixed now. Though the information hasn’t changed since yesterday, I may have left an old PDF in the upload spot.

    ===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

  • kepler

    When I click on the thumbnail I don’t get the latest pdf, I get an earlier one.

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