Two STRATFOR posts on al Qaeda

One of these is from a couple of days ago: Cutting Through the Lone Wolf Hype. It describes how the jihadist threat is “devolving” from cells based upon/tied into al Qaeda’s core structure to threats from lone operators.

The upshot: Such threats are not new, can cause damage, but are very often unsuccessful or achieve only limited results, as the operators by the nature of the “lone wolf” don’t get training on how to mount an attack. The more grandiose the attack, the more likely it will be thwarted.

Still, Nidal Hasan and a few similar jihadists, plus Andrew Brievik, show that such attacks can still cause great harm both to life and to attitudes.

This trend toward lone-wolf operations indicates that al Qaeda is losing its effectiveness.

The second article, from June, is related: it describes a 100-minute video from al Qaeda in which they warn people NOT to try to join al Qaeda, and instead to conduct lone wolf operations against the West. STRATFOR sees this message as essentially admitting defeat, or at least great weakness.

===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle